New York and New Jersey would each lose one U.S. House seat while the Texas congressional delegation would increase by four members for the 2012 elections, according to two independent analyses of new Census Bureau data.Seven other states would gain one representative apiece, all of them in the South and West, according to analyses by Polidata LLC, a demographic and political research firm based in Corinth, Vermont, and Manassas, Virginia-based Election Data Services Inc.
New York and New Jersey are among nine states that would lose one seat; Ohio would lose two. Except for Louisiana, the states that would shed lawmakers are all in the Northeast and Midwest, continuing a decades-long trend.
“People like to live where the jobs are, and until they get jobs in the Midwest or Northeast, that’s going to be a problem” for those regions, said Clark Bensen, chief consultant for Polidata.
A bipartisan commission draws congressional district lines in New Jersey, where the Democrats currently hold eight of 13 seats. In New York, where there are 27 Democrats and two Republicans in the delegation, the governor and legislature control redistricting.
‘More at Stake’
With Democrats currently holding both houses of the New York legislature and the governorship, one of the two remaining Republican-held districts is likely to be eliminated unless the party recaptures the Senate or the Executive Mansion in 2010.
“Clearly there’s more at stake in the next election than who takes office because of the redistricting,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, New York.
States that would gain one representative, based on the analyses of the Census Bureau estimates, are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
The other states that would lose one seat are Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, according to the analyses.
And still no one in the media can seem to make the connection between blue states and depressed economies.
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