Saturday, October 20, 2012

How does Romney lose Ohio?

As the polls come in one swing state after another showing Romney with a lead, it appears that Ohio is going to be bell cow for the whole race.

So I looked at the past 3 races to get a beat on what it's going to take for Romney to win Ohio.

Here are the results of the past three Ohio races..........

Let's start with the total vote counts in '04 and '08. All the campaigns in these years had huge Ohio ground games, which accounts for the total vote being so much higher than 2000.

I think it's probably safe to assume that this year's vote total is going to be similar to the past two elections; roughly 5.6 million votes cast. There's some evidence that the McCain vote was suppressed because of evangelical no shows but that only works to Romney's favor.

Now let's look at McCain's total vote of 2,677,820. I cannot think of any scenario in which one McCain voter would switch their support to Obama this round. In my mind, if you weren't inclined to vote for Obama four years ago, why would you vote for him today? The great economy?

That means that to take Ohio, Romney needs to flip about 135,000 Obama voters from '08.

A hundred and thirty five thousand votes is well within the Bush '04 count which is probably a republican's total upside.

How likely is this to happen?

Consider the following difference from '08

1) The economy, not exactly running on all cylinders.
2) A republican governor and secretary of state, which should limit the number of illegal democratic votes in Cuyahoga county.
3) The Romney war chest. It's absolutely huge and ready to dump money everywhere.
4) Coal miners
5) Talk to a few unemployed 25 year olds who were so bright eyed and bushy tailed in 2008. 
6) Delphi pensioners sold out during the auto bailout.
7) Kasich, Portman, and Mandel are all about the state with their individual infrastructure, something McCain had none of in 2008.
8) Romney is not McCain. McCain so pissed off evangelicals, many opted not to show up. These people are foaming at the mouth to get into a voting booth this go round.

With all that said, how does Romney lose?


Anonymous said...

I voted for John McCain in 2008 as did an uncounted number of public workers including cops, firefighters and yes even teachers, NONE OF WHOM are likely to vote for Mitt Romney after the GOP tried to shove Senate Bill 5 down Ohioan's throats last. year.

gordon gekko said...

I considered your premise but here is why I discounted that.

Wisconsin had a much more acerbic public union fight and yet here is Romney competitive in that state.

Also, Sherrod Brown the champion of every communist and public union in the state is neck and neck with a political neophyte in Josh Mandel.

So you seriously believe that public union members will flip that significantly?

After all, if no one has a job in the private sector, it makes it difficult to pay for all those kick ass pensions.

Anonymous said...

Mr Gekko:

Then blogger said he thought not one McCain voter would switch to Obama. I know of many, including myself, who either already have or will. Cops, firefighters, teachers, government workers...there WERE more of these who voted Republican in spite of what our unions recommended. Its going to be a close race in Ohio, who knows what the margin will be, and what small but angry group might make the difference? After all, 30% of Ohio Republicans voted AGAINST SB5 according to last years polls. It was a state issue, and its unlikely that many will vote for the President. But many WILL...

I'll be back to this after the election.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 1, Anonymous 2 here. Honest question. Why did you vote for McCain over Obama in 2008? I'm just curious. I'm placing myself in the mindset of someone who voted for McCain but against SB5, and I'm trying to think of a specific issue where McCain would have been able to get a union crossover vote in 2008.

Putting it another way: I'm picturing a prototypical voter who was a hardcore opponent of SB5. (My assumption is that someone who has permanently switched to a democratic vote because of offense over SB5 to be a hard core opponent of SB5.) I'm running through the scenarios and issues that would have made that same person vote for McCain in 2008. I'm sorry, something does not compute here.

You see, McCain was perhaps the least inspirational presidential candidate offered by either party since Carter in '80. Even we republicans had a difficult time turning out for the old geezer. In fact I can't even remember a single McCain defining issue. So forgive me, but I really have a hard time understanding what McCain issue or issues were so positively inspiring to someone who down the road would have an anti-SB5 mindset. Please enlighten me.

gordon gekko said...

I appears that I was too literal with my use of the word "no one".

Yes I'm sure there is someone out there who voted for McCain and is flipping to Obama.

But I have four relatives who are public union workers (and I'm sure voted to repeal SB5). They would have to be drug through hot coals and impaled to vote for Obama in this election.

So I just get the feeling that this number isn't all that significant. Especially in light of the other issues working on Romney's behalf.

Anonymous said...

As predicted Romney lost the election because he lost Ohio. He lost Ohio because the Ohio Republican Party damaged the brand and lost them Ohio voters. SB5 was the cause and catalyst. QED.

gordon gekko said...

I still couldn't disagree more.

If you consider the 3-2-1 strategy, Romney didn't even do the three which should have been the easiest.

It looks like Florida (with Ohio was the two) is going down and he didn't move any one of the other swing states that Obama took in 2008 (IA, CO, NH).

His loss mirrored the 2008 republican ass kicking. The only difference was slightly tighter margins.