How does Romney lose Ohio?

As the polls come in one swing state after another showing Romney with a lead, it appears that Ohio is going to be bell cow for the whole race.

So I looked at the past 3 races to get a beat on what it's going to take for Romney to win Ohio.

Here are the results of the past three Ohio races..........








Let's start with the total vote counts in '04 and '08. All the campaigns in these years had huge Ohio ground games, which accounts for the total vote being so much higher than 2000.

I think it's probably safe to assume that this year's vote total is going to be similar to the past two elections; roughly 5.6 million votes cast. There's some evidence that the McCain vote was suppressed because of evangelical no shows but that only works to Romney's favor.

Now let's look at McCain's total vote of 2,677,820. I cannot think of any scenario in which one McCain voter would switch their support to Obama this round. In my mind, if you weren't inclined to vote for Obama four years ago, why would you vote for him today? The great economy?

That means that to take Ohio, Romney needs to flip about 135,000 Obama voters from '08.

A hundred and thirty five thousand votes is well within the Bush '04 count which is probably a republican's total upside.

How likely is this to happen?

Consider the following difference from '08

1) The economy, not exactly running on all cylinders.
2) A republican governor and secretary of state, which should limit the number of illegal democratic votes in Cuyahoga county.
3) The Romney war chest. It's absolutely huge and ready to dump money everywhere.
4) Coal miners
5) Talk to a few unemployed 25 year olds who were so bright eyed and bushy tailed in 2008. 
6) Delphi pensioners sold out during the auto bailout.
7) Kasich, Portman, and Mandel are all about the state with their individual infrastructure, something McCain had none of in 2008.
8) Romney is not McCain. McCain so pissed off evangelicals, many opted not to show up. These people are foaming at the mouth to get into a voting booth this go round.


With all that said, how does Romney lose?

Biden Says Corn Syrup And Coal More Deadly That Terrorism

Mitt Romney Jokes and One Liners at Al Smith dinner with President Barac...

How is this race even close?

Apparently, Romney is big in rural areas..........

The random cellphone and land line poll of 600 likely rural voters in nine battleground states Oct. 9-11 has Romney at 59 percent among the survey’s respondents. Obama’s support is now down to 37 percent among rural battleground voters, a plunge of 10 points from the actual rural vote in those states four years ago.

The nine battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin have a collective rural population of 13.6 million, according to the Census Bureau.

“It’s a boon to Romney,” says pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, the Democratic partner in the survey. “It will help him … because, of course, he will lose urban areas by a similar margin. And the suburban areas are still pretty competitive.”

This is what I don't get. Romney is doing better than McCain in 2008 with the following groups

1) Jews
2) Men
3) White working class
4) Hispanics
5) Catholics
6) Asians
7) Young people
8) Old people


And to some level he's doing better among blacks.

In fact, I haven't seen a subset that Romney's doing worse with outside of women and even that gaps closing.

So if he's doing better than McCain among all these groups, how is this even close?

More....

McCaskill: The Good News Is Emissions Are Down Because Of The Recession

If the Obamunists get their way they'll totally wipe out global warming by killing the US economy in its entirety.

Clinton "takes responsibility"

What does that mean?

Seriously, ever since Janet Reno "accepted responsibility" for the Branch Davidian FUBAR, I've always wondered what that meant to a politician.

To "accept responsibility" means to accept consequences. If it's a big enough screw up that should mean either loss of job or criminal charges or some other negative consequence.

Imagine going into your boss and "accepting responsibility" for a lost account because you forgot to follow up with important information to the customer.

What are the potential consequences?

Well, if you are a Secretary of State it means........

1) you admit to a boo boo.
2) you travel to Peru
3) you collect your next direct deposit

This is why I hate politicians.

Worst Debate Question Ever (from 1992)

This isn't the worst debate question ever. The answer was the worst ever.

H.W. should have walked off the stage and slapped the crap out of this guy.

Meet an idiot

Don't take my word for it. She cops to it.

Life in "Progress" City - Cleveland edition

Life in "Progress" Country - Greece edition

Greece's biggest company is leaving the country, drinks bottler Coca Cola Hellenic (CCH) said on Thursday in announcing it will move to Switzerland and list its shares in London, dealing a blow to the debt-crippled Greek economy. 

 The material impact on Greece may be limited — its Greek plants will go on working and CCH said the five percent of its business that the world's second-ranked Coke bottler has in Greece will be unaffected. But analysts quickly saw it as bad news for a nation struggling to compete inside the euro zone.

CCH, which already has secondary stock market listings in London and New York [CCH  21.70    1.25  (+6.11%)   ], said in a bourse filing in Athens that shareholders, most of whom are abroad, will exchange all their stock for shares in Coca Cola HBC, based in Switzerland. That stock will have its primary quote in London [CCB.L  14.90  ---  UNCH    ].

"A primary listing on Europe's biggest and most liquid stock exchange reflects better the international character of Coca Cola Hellenic's business activities and shareholder base," the company said in its regulatory statement.

The firm, in which The Coca-Cola Company [COKE  69.46    0.19  (+0.27%)   ] of the United States has a 23-percent stake, bottles Coke and other drinks in 28 countries from Russia to Nigeria. About 95 percent of its shareholders and business activity are outside Greece.

"This transaction makes clear business sense," chief executive Dimitris Lois told analysts in a conference call. 

An overwhelming majority of shareholders have already accepted moving a company which has long complained about Greek taxes. 

More..........

@ProjectVeritas_ EXCLUSIVE: DNC Staffer Assists Double Voting In Support...

@ProjectVeritas_ EXCLUSIVE: Brooklyn, Minnesota, Florida - Voter Fraud C...

Who would believe that the unemployment rate could be "doctored"? Well, Rick Santelli predicted as such on 9/7.

Who would he have voted for? #10101

Meet Edward Archbold.

Why is Eddie in the news................

A West Palm Beach man died Friday after he won a roach-eating contest held by a reptile store in Broward County.

Edward Archbold, 32, died Friday shortly before midnight. He had collapsed in front of the Ben Siegel Reptile Store in Deerfield Beach, where he had taken part in the contest.

Archbold and several other people signed up to eat a variety of insects for a chance to win a python. 

Archbold ate dozens of roaches and worms, and was declared the winner of the challenge.  Shortly after the contest ended, Archbold said he wasn't feeling well and he began to vomit before collapsing.

Archbold was taken to Broward Health North, where he was pronounced dead.

None of the other contestants reported any medical issues after the contest.

Investigators are awaiting the results of the autopsy before they can determine the cause of death.

So in the November 6, 2012 election. Was this Einstein going to vote for Obama or Romney?

Read more: http://www.970wfla.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=124415&article=10478924#ixzz28oxQpHxn

The best yard sign ever

You know. I'd have a lot more respect for liberals if they'd put one of the no gun signs on their doors and windows like they require businesses.

The Law of Unintended Consequences

In an experiment apparently aimed at keeping down the cost of health-care reform, Orlando-based Darden Restaurants has stopped offering full-time schedules to many hourly workers in at least a few Olive Gardens, Red Lobsters and LongHorn Steakhouses.

Darden said the test is taking place in "a select number" of restaurants in four markets, including Central Florida, but would not give details. The company said there has been no decision made about expanding it.

In an emailed statement, Darden said staffing changes are "just one of the many things we are evaluating to help us address the cost implications health care reform will have on our business. There are still many unanswered questions regarding the health care regulations and we simply do not have enough information to make any decisions at this time."

Analysts say many other companies, including the White Castle hamburger chain, are considering employing fewer full-timers because of key features of the Affordable Care Act scheduled to go into effect in 2014. Under that law, large companies must provide affordable health insurance to employees working an average of at least 30 hours per week.

As you read this, ask yourself the question who is impacted more by this unintended consequence?

1) A doctor
2) A NFL football player
3) A college grad paying off student loan debt
4) A NASA engineer

More.......

Life in "Progress" State - California edition

Just over 8.5 billion recyclable cans were sold in California last year. The number redeemed for a nickel under California's recycling law: 8.3 billion.

That's a return rate of nearly 100%.

That kind of success isn't just impressive, it's unbelievable. But the recycling rate for certain plastic containers was even higher: 104%.

California's generous recycling redemption program has led to rampant fraud. Crafty entrepreneurs are driving semi-trailers full of cans from Nevada or Arizona, which don't have deposit laws, across the border and transforming their cargo into truckfuls of nickels. In addition, recyclers inside the state are claiming redemptions for the same containers several times over, or for containers that never existed.

The illicit trade is draining the state's $1.1-billion recycling fund. Government officials recently estimated the fraud at $40 million a year, and an industry expert said it could exceed $200 million. It's one reason the strapped fund paid out $100 million more in expenses last year than it took in from deposits and other sources.

"The law says California has to make it easy to recycle … so anyone with a devious mind, it's so easy, they can just go right in," said Los Angeles County Sheriff's Deputy Dave Chapman, who has investigated fraud rings in recent months.

Under the state's 25-year-old recycling law, California charges consumers a deposit on most beverage containers sold within its borders. Anyone who brings empty containers back to one of about 2,300 privately run recycling centers can collect 5 cents for most cans and bottles and 10 cents for larger containers.

Only products sold in California are eligible. But a can is a can — and many recycling centers in California aren't that interested in where they come from.

More.........

Life in "Progress" City - Detroit edition

How is it that republicans are responsible for this........

The men and women of the Detroit Police Department believe the city is too dangerous to enter, and they want citizens to know it.

Detroit Police Officer Association (DPOA) Attorney Donato Iorio said officers are holding the “Enter At Your Own Risk” rally at 3:30 p.m. Saturday in front of Comerica Park to remind the public that the officers are overworked, understaffed, and at times, fearful for their lives.

“Detroit is America’s most violent city, its homicide rate is the highest in the country and yet the Detroit Police Department is grossly understaffed,” Iorio told WWJ’s Kathryn Larson. “The DPOA believes that there is a war in Detroit, but there should be a war on crime, not a war on its officers.”

Iorio says the once 2,000 strong force is shrinking rapidly; since the start of summer, hundreds of officers have left the department.

More.....

President Obama Wants Higher Energy Prices

Just what happened on that unemployment report?

It was awesome, if the ultimate goal is loading up workers with part time employment...........

How is it that the rate could drop by .3% while the actual number of jobs created came in line with expectations at 114k? Prior months revisions of +86k jobs added helps but the 3 month average of approximately +145k jobs added is barely enough to keep the overall level of unemployment flat.

Additionally, how is it that the rate could drop by .3% while the more broadly defined U-6 rate of unemployment remained unchanged at the elevated level of 14.7%?

The key to the change in the unemployment rate is the fact that there were a lot of people who reportedly found part-time work. Bloomberg highlights this fact in writing,

Some 582,000 Americans took part- time positions because of slack business conditions or those jobs were the only work they could find.

Part-time positions can influence a report to this magnitude? How convenient. At this rate, we could still have the worst economy since the Great Depression and a 5% rate of unemployment. We would also be ridiculed as a nation of liars and fakers.(please see my other commentary this morning).

This from the Business Insider, hardly a conservative rag.

Read more: http://www.senseoncents.com/2012/10/october-employment-report-what-really-happened/#ixzz28Rxos51A