I know the polls say the GOP is going to take a beating today but I think all the polls have an institutional Democratic bias. Not because of anything nefarious by the pollsters but because I think Conservatives are so much less likely to talk about their politics with pollsters or if they are like me, they lie.
I've noticed this with yard signs. I believe fervent Democrats will always be more willing to post yards signs than Republicans. Republicans just always show up at the poll the counts.... the voting booth. I will never put a political sign in my yard or a bumper sticker on my car for fear of being vandalized (it happened at a Bush rally in '04).
This year I believe there will be a lot of Republicans holding their noses as they cast a vote for Dewine, Blackwell, Montgomery, et al. But they will show up and there will be some that won't show up at all because they're tired of the choice between crap or vomit.
Despite a better GOP turnout than the polls are predicting. I do think the GOP in Ohio is in for a bad day. Of course, the way Ohio Republicans have governed for the past 14 years, we can take solace that 2 years from now we'll still be one the worst business states in the union.
None the less, here are my predictions.
Governor Strickland
Senate Brown
House GOP loses 10 seats
Senate GOP loses 4 seats
Issue 2 passes
Issue 3 passes
Issue 4 passes
Issue 5 passes
In other words, I'll be drowning my sorrows tonight.
1 comment:
If the Republicans hold the House and Senate, as you predict, you should be buying the bar a round. That would be a huge win.
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