The good news

Wealth isn't the only thing fleeing the blue states to the red ones; so are the voters......

The country's balance of population, and hence its balance of political power, continues to shift to the South and West, as it has for the past six decades. The census figures being released in December, which will decide the reapportionment of House seats among the states starting with the 2012 election, will probably show less dramatic changes than in the recent past. But they also could upend much of the advance planning of the nation's political mapmakers, if the final and official count varies even a little from current projections.

Texas clearly will be the big winner and stands to gain as many as four seats, due in large part to its fast-growing Hispanic population. But it could be limited to a three-seat gain if the state's population surge proves to be just 38,005 smaller (in a population of 25.3 million) than expected. And similarly minuscule differences -- in relative terms, at least -- could make the difference for as many as 16 states that might gain, retain or lose congressional seats.

Last week Kimball Brace, who runs Election Data Services Inc., a political demographic consulting firm, released a reapportionment projection based on July population estimates. It shows that four states could gain an additional seat -- and four could retain a seat they're now projected to lose -- if their populations prove only slightly bigger than current estimates. At the same time, minimal deviations put four states at risk of losing one of their current seats and four on the cusp of missing out on a seat they will get if the conventional projections prove accurate.

Under Brace's projections, just two states gain multiple seats: Texas would elect 36 House members starting in 2012, up from 32, and the Florida delegation would grow to 27 from 25. New seats would also be assigned to Georgia (for a new total of 14), Washington (for 10), Arizona (for nine), South Carolina (for seven) and Nevada and Utah (for four apiece). The two-seat losers would be New York (which would be left with 27) and Ohio (reduced to 16). One seat each would be taken from Illinois and Pennsylvania (leaving both with 18), New Jersey (12), Massachusetts (nine), Missouri (seven), Louisiana (six) and Iowa (four).

To think that Ohio once had 26 electoral votes.

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