I've developed my pick in relation to the following facts.
1) No democrat has collected 51% of the popular vote since LBJ in 1964. Even Jimmy Carter, a southern populist against a mortally wounded Gerald Ford could only muster 50.1%. For those thinking this will be a blowout, go back to your crack pipe.
2) I still believe the polls have a large democratic bias. Especially since so many republicans flipped party affiliation in the primaries to vote for Hillary. I'm thinking that there could be as much as two percent swing based on party affiliation alone.
3) Outside of PA, this campaign has been fought on red turf from the inception. It has an Alamo type feel to it.
4) Who knows how much voter fraud is going on.
After all that, this one is easy. Whoever wins Virginia wins the electoral college. If McCain loses, it will be a bell weather of things to come in PA, OH, MO etc. If he wins, it means more work for Obama to flip other red states.
I do think McCain should win NC but GA might be the surprise of the night.
Just remember, I also picked the Bears and Patriots to win their respective Super Bowls.
No comments:
Post a Comment