Thursday, October 30, 2008

Reasons to be encouraged?

Reasons for McCain supporters to be encouraged.

I've read many a analysis of the early voting and things look somewhat hopeful for Maverick.

Colorado

Nevada

Florida

While there may be some bright spots in this information, I think any analysis of early voting and/or polling could be skewed as a result of the following fact sets.

For instance, it appears that democrats have requested more absentee ballots in Ohio than republicans. Good for Obama right?

Except that a legion of republicans switched parties in March to vote in the democratic primary. Ole Gordon was one of them.

In fact, I wonder if the polling has taken this into account. Consider that if polling organizations look at Ohio and see 38% registered democratic and 28% registered republicans, I'm guessing that their polling sample will be reflective of those numbers. But let's say there was a 2% swing from republicans switching their registrations. Do the polling firms now look at getting a sampling of 40% democrat and 26% republican? I don't know.

During the spring, the DNC claimed they were encouraged by the party switching because it was evidence of disaffected republicans. While I'm sure there was some of this, I know of four people who switched for the exclusive purpose of voting for The Billary.

Combine that with the "undecided" voter. My gut tells me that a large portion of these voters are people who absolutely detest McCain (like myself) but the thought of voting Obama is even more sickening. I'm guessing that if you are an Obama fan, you are dying to be polled to tell them who you are supporting. If you are a McCain voter, you probably not only don't want to talk to a pollster you may just say you're undecided due to your lack of enthusiasm. But when push comes to shove, you'll hold your nose and vote McCain.

Then there's the Bradley effect. I have a different take on the Bradley effect. In general, the hypothesis is that white voters don't want to appear racist by picking the other candidate. As a result, black candidates over poll. But consider that the Bradley effect has less to do with white voters than black. Can you imagine being black, being polled and not supporting the black candidate? I'm sure that no African American wants the scourge that Clarence Thomas gets for being an"Uncle Tom".

If this holds true, I'm thinking that the "Bradley effect" will be negligible.

Finally, one last issue that comes into play. Fraudulent votes. There's little doubt that there is rampant voter fraud being committed by Obamamunists. Just yesterday, a congressional aide was fired for registering in Ohio despite being a NY resident.

How many of these are there? How many Donald Duck's have received an absentee ballot to vote for The Messiah?

Lot's of issues in play. I'm guessing we won't know until late Tuesday whether or not Obama can put on his coronation crown and robe.

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